One of the main stories in the money and bond markets of late has been the development of inverted yield curves in the Treasury (UST) market. Indeed, a variety of intra-maturity spreads have witnessed ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest... Can the yield curve still predict recessions? Two years ...

Unless you follow investing closely you may never have heard of the “yield curve” and may not realize how much impact it has on your life. The yield curve predicts to some extent your income over the ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...